Latitudinal Patterns of Flowering Phenology of Key Tropical and Subtropical Tree Species in Pakistan Using Citizen Science and Public Media Data
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65761/jbs.v2.i1.7Abstract
Background: Plant phenology, particularly flowering timing, is a sensitive indicator of ecological responses to climatic variability. Shifts in flowering patterns affect reproductive success, pollinator interactions, and overall ecosystem stability. Despite its importance, large-scale phenological data for key tree species in Pakistan remain limited.
Objective: This study aimed to investigate latitudinal patterns of flowering in Bombax ceiba, Butea monosperma, and Cassia fistula across Pakistan and assess the influence of latitude and climatic variables on flowering phenophases.
Methodology: Images and citizenscience records of 2019-2025 were gathered as a descriptive observational study using publicly available materials. Two thousand one hundred and ten geotagged records of various climatic regions, such as the arid plains of Sindh, the temperate highlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, etc., were studied. Flowering date and flowering duration and peak were measured and regression analysis done to test the association between latitude, temperature, precipitation and flowering time.
Findings: In the southern latitudes; flowering was early and prolonged than in the north. The flowering of Bombax ceiba was late February in the southern region and mid-March in the north and was followed by the same in Butea monosperma and Cassia fistula. Regression studies revealed that latitude and flowering onset were significantly negatively correlated (r = -0.68, p = 0.01), which translates to a delay in phenophases at high latitudes.
Conclusion: Southern populations enjoy warmer conditions, longer photo-periods, and northern populations are found to undergo delayed flowering. The importance of citizen-provided data in tracking large-scale phenological trends and baseline data on the evaluation of climate change effects on ecologically and economically significant tree species in Pakistan are noted in the study.
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